Price of the second half of Lead Concentrate fundamentals strong point will be on the supply shortage and steadily growing demand downstream under the premise of short-term is affected mainly the dollar and the domestic impact of intermediaries IBM ThinkPad T41 Battery, storage goods in the supply tight pattern under Lead prices will continue to rise in the near future trend.

Positive macroeconomic data
Improved U.S. economic data last week gave new confidence to the commodity markets, the U.S. Commerce Department data showed6U.S. housing rebound in the month of volume, turnover58.2Million units, compared with5Month56.210000 sets up3.6%; National Association of Home Builders released data showed the confidence of U.S. home builders7The month improved significantly, rising from the2008Year9The highest level since the month.
Compared to the United States, China's economic recovery rate much faster than the world. Data,IBM ThinkPad T41 Battery, IBM ThinkPad T42 Series Battery, IBM ThinkPad T43 Battery, IBM ThinkPad T60 Battery, GDPGrowth accelerated for the first time in seven quarters, close to8%Full-year target; the first half of total fixed asset investment growth33.5%; State-owned enterprises accumulated profits5,534Billion yuan, down27%, A decline of more than1-5On reducing3.3Percent6Months than5On an increase of nearly30%; Petrochemical, building materials, real estate and other industries saw their profits continue to grow, the power industry profitability; iron and steel, nonferrous metals, shipping and other industries reduced losses significantly. Therefore, we believe that demand for off-season in the case of non-ferrous metals, IBM ThinkPad T42 Series Battery, a substantial period of rising prices is the driving force"China factor"Economic recovery has increased the certainty of the price band, but also accompanied by"Inflation"Initiation.

Tight supply of lead concentrate
China's abundant reserves of lead, but still need to be turned into reality the process of production capacity, according to Bureau of Statistics data,2008Of lead concentrate production for the year114.5Million tons, we expect2009Years of lead concentrate production of approximately120Million tons.
However, after the era change, lead smelting technology advances, the increase in domestic lead production rate is still very significant, and2000The domestic production of lead111.9Million tons, to2008Years, has reached320.6Million tons, an increase of186.5%, We believe that the demand pull of lead at home and abroad makes the lead directly to rapid expansion of production capacity, but the ore smelting at present can not meet domestic demand, and thus indirectly helped the processing fee fluctuations.
From the lead in processing fees in recent months, as far as mining companies trying to attract producers of lead ore smelting of buying imported lead concentrate processing fees increased sharply about three times the current low silver lead concentrate processing fees(TCs)Tonne30-50U.S. dollars, according to the processing fees of lead concentrate(TCs)To40U.S. Dollar/T to calculate, using imports of lead in lead concentrate production cost of about14,000Yuan/Tons, with the current spot of lead13,500Yuan/Tons compared to the cost is still a gap. The author believes that the current lead mining and smelting business enterprises operating rate has risen to95%Above, concentrate monthly consumption will be increased, despite the current off-season for the traditional metal consumption, but the abundant liquidity will lead to further higher lead prices.

Downstream demand for warming
The main areas of China are mainly lead batteries, glass, cables and manufacturing,About domestic lead consumption of the85.6%Which accounted for battery65%Of GDP. From2007Year,2008Year and the2009In the first quarter of the data, the output of lead-acid batteries only in08Years10Months and11On a noticeable decline in08Year12The month that the apparent recovery09In early rally intensified, indicating the downstream battery industry, orders for more full, did not affect the output, IBM ThinkPad T43 Battery, it can be said that when lead ingot prices fall at a time when raw material costs down the downstream enterprises a good time.
From2009Lead-acid battery-year trends in import trade point of view,2009Year3Months after starting a small lead-acid battery imports rebound in imports of other types of lead-acid battery is still a small drop in imports of parts rise slightly higher than other domestic species recovery rate of basic metals slightly faster.
Market demand for batteries can be divided into two categories, one automotive battery market demand; second electric bicycle battery market demand.2008Capacity by the end of car ownership650010000, according to country-driven car to the countryside and other related policy implementation, we are a conservative estimate,2009Years of new vehicle sales of at least100010000, about15.4%Incremental,IBM ThinkPad T41 Battery, IBM ThinkPad T42 Series Battery, IBM ThinkPad T43 Battery, IBM ThinkPad T60 Battery, directly contributing to the development of lead-acid battery industry; and2008Amount of electric bikes by the end of tenure800010000, prediction2009Years, production of new bike200010000, about25%Increment will directly pull up lead prices continue to rise.
Overall, the steady growth of the downstream demand will lead smelting business profitable, is expected to2009In the second half, IBM ThinkPad T60 Battery, battery industry will continue to ensure that enterprises use the same period last year of lead rise in raw materials.